Saint Mary's Huskies Football / Teeter-Totter Method / 2026
Huskies War Room
RECORD 7–0 (AUS 7–0)PTS/G 26.2 · ALLOWED 10.7NEXT · OCT 30 vs STFX · SENIOR NIGHT
Game dayStudyTeamData
GAME DAY
Do this
Our offence — where to attack
Don't do this
Our offence — where to stay away
Watch out for
Their defenders who end our drives
2nd down decides the drive
We only get 3 downs, so 2nd down is the money down
3rd down: go for it or kick?
How often teams really go for it
Who we throw to
Most targets so far
Who they throw to
Know these names on defence
Not 100% healthy
From your Film & notes tab
Our plan for this game
From your Film & notes tab
How to read thisPick a down and distance. For each part of the field you see how often a team runs or passes, how often that play keeps the drive alive ("works"), and how the other team's defence does against it. Use the switch to flip sides and see the other team's offence against ours.
Who gets the ball
Who makes the stops
What do these words and numbers mean?
Trouble Index — a score from 24 to 95 for how dangerous this opponent is to us specifically. It compares the situations where our offence struggles with where their defence is strongest, and adds how well their offence scores against the yards our defence gives up. It is not their record. Higher = harder game.
Our offence cards — the left and the top-right cards are about what our offence should do against their defence. The cards under "Their trigger men" are about their defence.
Success rate — the share of plays that gained enough to keep the drive alive: at least half the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, all of it on 3rd down. (The newer tabs — Who gets the ball, Cracks, Call sheet — use 60% on 2nd down, so numbers will differ slightly between tabs.)
Big plays — a run of 12+ yards or a pass of 20+ yards.
Yards per play — total yards divided by plays in that situation.
Plays / "% of our offence" — how many plays we ran in that situation, and what share of all our plays that is.
Predictability — how easy a situation is to guess, from 0 to 100. 0 means a coin flip (half runs, half passes); 100 means it is always the same call. Above about 60, the defence does not have to guess.
"1.40× normal" (load factor) — how many of their stops come from that situation compared with how often it comes up in football. 1.00 = normal. 1.40 = they make 40% more of their stops there than expected — they have decided to live there. Below 0.7 = they are thin there.
Stop and stop rate — a stop is a tackle on a play that failed (did not get the yards it needed). Stop rate is stops divided by all his tackles.
Disruption score — stop rate × the square root of his tackles × 10. It ranks defenders who both make many tackles and make them on failed plays, so a man cleaning up downfield does not rank high.
September and October — every play from both months counts the same. Games before September (the Aug 29–30 openers) are not included.
—TROUBLE INDEX
—
MANAGEABLELIVE DOGSERIOUS TROUBLE
The script Both cards are our offence against their defence
Built by crossing our success rate in each situation against their concentration of stop-makers in that same square of grass and that same down. Attack where we are good and they are thin. Every September and October play counts the same.
OUR OFFENCE Go here — where to attack
OUR OFFENCE Stay out of trouble — where to avoid
Their trigger men Both cards are their defence
THEIR DEFENCE Who ends our drives
THEIR DEFENCE What they do to us
The road to the Mitchell Bowl
Every possible opponent ranked by the same Trouble Index — our weaknesses crossed with their strengths, not their record. Click a row to load that team into every tab.
What do these words and numbers mean?
Talent — built from three parts: frame (size against the position), production (his stats, adjusted for how much the team gave him) and impact (what the play-by-play shows). Scored 1 to 10. "Frame only" means he has no stats or charted plays yet, so his grade is pulled halfway back toward 5.
Intelligence and Work — you grade these 1 to 10 from film: Intelligence is how often he busts assignments; Work is whether he loafs in any of the four quarters.
Total (/30) — Talent + Intelligence + Work. The gap between the two totals decides the call at the bottom, from "Mismatch — attack it" to "Losing matchup — scheme around it".
The Fulcrum — team-level scores (health, bench depth, coaching, starters) that limit how far the board can tip and whether an edge still holds in the fourth quarter. You enter them once a week.
Husky
—
Talent — frame + production + impact—
Intelligence — busts on film5
Work — loafs, all four quarters5
Total—
Opponent
—
Talent — frame + production + impact—
Intelligence — busts on film5
Work — loafs, all four quarters5
Total—
Husky
—/30
——
Opponent
—/30
Pick a matchup
Frame, production and play-by-play impact grade themselves off the 2026 numbers. You grade Intelligence and Work off the film.
The Fulcrum
Team scores, not player scores. They cap how far the board can tip and whether the edge holds four quarters. Entered once a week — they carry across every card.
What do these words and numbers mean?
Big number (%) — success rate: the share of plays that gained enough to keep the drive alive: at least half the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, all of it on 3rd down. (The newer tabs — Who gets the ball, Cracks, Call sheet — use 60% on 2nd down, so numbers will differ slightly between tabs.)
Colour — green = 60% or better, white = 48–59%, orange = 38–47%, red = under 38%.
Red bar along the bottom — how often that situation was a run. A longer bar means more runs.
Plays, yards per play, runs, big plays — how many plays are in the box, yards per play, the share that were runs, and the number of big plays — a run of 12+ yards or a pass of 20+ yards.
The seven boxes — the field from our own goal line (left) to the opponent’s goal line (right).
Trouble / Where they are lethal — the lowest and highest success rates, using only situations with enough plays to mean something.
Where we live and where we die
Every snap sorted by where the ball sat. The big number is success rate — the share of plays that gained enough to keep the chains moving (half the distance on first, 60% on second, all of it on third). The red bar along the bottom of each cell is how often we ran it.
◄ OUR GOAL LINEMIDFIELDTHEIR GOAL LINE ►
Same field, their offence
◄ THEIR GOAL LINEMIDFIELDOUR GOAL LINE ►
What do these words and numbers mean?
Big number (% runs) — the share of plays that were runs in that down and distance. 50 is a coin flip. A high number means they nearly always run; a low number means they nearly always throw.
Colour — red = runs 72% or more (easy to read for the defence), gold = runs 28% or less (almost always throws), white = mixed.
Short, Medium, Long — 1–3 yards to go, 4–7 yards to go, 8 or more yards to go.
Predictability — how easy a situation is to guess, from 0 to 100. 0 means a coin flip (half runs, half passes); 100 means it is always the same call. Above about 60, the defence does not have to guess.
Success, big plays, yards per play — success rate: the share of plays that gained enough to keep the drive alive: at least half the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, all of it on 3rd down. (The newer tabs — Who gets the ball, Cracks, Call sheet — use 60% on 2nd down, so numbers will differ slightly between tabs.) Big plays: a run of 12+ yards or a pass of 20+ yards.
Tells — the situations where the offence is easiest to guess. A defence can lean on these.
Down and distance
The number is run percentage. A cell at 50 is a coin flip and nobody can cheat it. A cell at 90 is a tell — the defence knows before the ball moves. Predictability (0–100) measures exactly how far from a coin flip each situation is.
By quarter Does the plan change late?
Their down and distance
What do these words and numbers mean?
Tkl — tackles he made.
Stops — tackles he made on plays that failed to get the yards needed.
Stop rate — stops divided by tackles. Green = 55% or more, red = under 40%.
Disruption — stop rate × the square root of his tackles × 10. Rewards making tackles that kill drives, not just tackles.
Run% — the share of his tackles that came on runs.
Lives — the part of the field where most of his tackles happen.
By zone / down / quarter — small bars. Taller bar = more of his tackles there. By zone runs from our goal line (left) to the opponent’s goal line (right); by down is nine down-and-distance groups from 1st-and-short to 3rd-and-long; by quarter is Q1 to Q4.
Carrier table — touches = carries plus catches; per touch = yards per touch (green 8+, red under 5); big plays = a run of 12+ yards or a pass of 20+ yards.
Who actually makes the play
Tackle totals flatter the man cleaning up five yards downfield. Stop rate is the share of a defender's tackles that landed on a play which failed — the ones that killed the down. Disruption multiplies that by volume, so it rewards the man who makes a lot of tackles that actually hurt. The bars are where his work happens: by field zone, then by down and distance.
Our own defence
Who carries their offence
What do these words and numbers mean?
Severity (the big number) — how much damage this crash can do: how often we call it × how much of his work happens there × how often his tackles end failed plays × how predictable we are there. Red = 50 or more, orange = 28 or more.
Predictability — how easy a situation is to guess, from 0 to 100. 0 means a coin flip (half runs, half passes); 100 means it is always the same call. Above about 60, the defence does not have to guess.
Stop rate — the share of his tackles that came on plays that failed.
"He does not have to guess" — we are so predictable there (60+) that he knows what is coming.
The collision Our tendency meets their best
This is the part no box score shows you. It takes the situations we call most often, finds the opponent defender who lives in that exact square of grass on that exact down, and ranks the crashes by how much damage they can do. Severity weighs our volume, our tip, and his stop rate together.
What do these words and numbers mean?
Frame / Prod / Impact / Talent — 1 to 10 grades: frame = size for the position, prod = production from the stats, impact = what the play-by-play shows. Talent combines the three.
Lives — where on the field his charted plays happen most.
lb/in — weight divided by height. Used to judge frame.
Who can beat you Talent board — frame, production, impact
Full roster
This week's board Saved matchups
Matchup
Opp
Ours
Theirs
Diff
Call
Nothing on the board yet. Grade a matchup and add it.
AUS standings Atlantic — the road through here
OUA standings Yates Cup — the other side of the Mitchell Bowl
Every team, side by side All ten playoff teams
Who gets the ball, when, and how often. Pick a team below. The top half is their offence (who they throw to). The bottom half is their defence (how they get thrown at). Every section starts with a short plain-English summary.
What the play-by-play cannot tell us: formation, motion, personnel, who actually lined up across from whom, separation, time to throw, or pressure. A tackle or a break-up is the only coverage tag, and the man who makes the tackle is not always the man who was covering. Those need charted film.
What do these words and numbers mean?
Chance a play works — the big number in each box. A play "works" if it gains about half the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, or all of it on 3rd down.
+ / − small number — points above or below what an average matchup would give. Green = good for the Huskies offence.
n 32/20 — 32 plays of ours and 20 plays of theirs in that situation. Fewer than 5 of ours shows grey: no read.
Edge — how much better or worse our offence should do against this defence than against an average one. Positive is good.
Strength — average points scored minus points allowed per game. Bigger = better team.
Where the defence cracks —
Where the Huskies offence should attack this defence. Each box is the chance a play works, based on how our plays have worked and how often this defence lets plays work. Click any team on the board to make them the opponent.
Every opponent, strongest first how we measure up against better teams
Every other team, strongest first. A positive edge means our offence should work more often than against an average defence in the same situations; negative means it will be harder. This does not adjust for how strong our own schedule has been.
Winning the one-on-ones our receivers vs their defenders
What do these words and numbers mean?
PASS / RUN — the better option in that situation: whichever we expect to work more often against this defence.
% next to it — the chance it works.
"to Joshua Jack" — the receiver we throw to most on that down.
n — how many of our plays are in that box. "Not enough plays" means too few to trust.
Defence view — shows what their offence actually chooses there. MIXED means no clear lean.
Sideline — one big card: pick down, distance and field position.